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Ellen Kaplan,Robert Kaplan: Chances Are: Adventures in Probability

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A compelling journey through history, mathematics, and philosophy, charting humanity's struggle against randomness Our lives are played out in the arena of chance. However little we recognize it in our day-to-day existence, we are always riding the odds, seeking out certainty but settlingreluctantlyfor likelihood, building our beliefs on the shadowy props of probability. "Chances Are" is the story of man's millennia-long search for the tools to manage the recurrent but unpredictableto help us prevent, or at least mitigate, the seemingly random blows of disaster, disease, and injustice. In these pages, we meet the brilliant individuals who developed the first abstract formulations of probability, as well as the intrepid visionaries who recognized their practical applicationsfrom gamblers to military strategists to meteorologists to medical researchers, from blackjack to our own mortality. "

Seventeen-year-old Bonnie Baker has grown up on TV she and her twelve siblings are the stars of one-time hit reality show "Baker's Dozen." Since the show's cancellation, Bonnie has tried to live a normal life, under the radar and out of the spotlight. But it's about to fall apart . . . because "Baker's Dozen" is going back on the air. Bonnie 's mom and the show's producers won't let her quit and soon the life that she Chances Are: Adventures in Probability download ebook has so carefully built for herself, with real friends (and maybe even a real boyfriend), is in danger of being destroyed by the show. Bonnie needs to do something drastic if her life is ever going to be her own even if it means being more exposed than ever before.Heather Demetrios' "Something Real "is the winner of the Susan P. Bloom PEN New England Discovery Award." He used to be perfect, but now he s even better! Garfield, the fat cat with the super sized ego, is back in the spotlight, dissing his dimwitted owner Jon even pilfering his pants. Some cats chase mice; Garfield prefers to take legal action. When down on the farm, the city kitty puts up with-and puts down-Jon and his barnyard brother. No wonder Garfield s often in a bad mood.

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Jeff Long: Descent (Om)

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We are not alone In a cave in the Himalayas, a guide discovers a self-mutilated body with the warning--Satan exists. In the Kalahari Desert, a nun unearths evidence of a proto-human species and a deity called Older-than-Old. In Bosnia, something has been feeding upon the dead in a mass grave. So begins mankind s most shocking realization: that the underworld is a vast geological labyrinth populated by another race of beings. Some call them devils or demons. But they are real. They are down there. And they are waiting for us to find them "

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Barbara E. Thompson,Robert A. Neimeyer: Grief and the Expressive Arts: Practices for Creating Meaning

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The use of the arts in psychotherapy is a burgeoning area of interest, particularly in the field of bereavement, where it is a staple intervention in hospice programs, children's grief camps, specialized programs for trauma or combat exposure, work with bereaved parents, widowed elders or suicide survivors, and in many other contexts. But how should clinicians differentiate between the many different approaches and techniques, and what criteria should they use to decide which technique to use-and when? Grief and the Expressive Arts provides the answers using a crisp, coherent structure that creates a conceptual and relational scaffold for an artistically inclined grief therapy. Each of the book's brief chapters is accessible and clearly focused, conveying concrete methods and anchoring them in brief case studies, across a range of approaches featuring music, creative writing, visual arts, dance and movement, theatre and performance and multi-modal practices. Any clinician-expressive arts therapist, grief counselor, or something in between-looking for a professionally oriented but scientifically informed book for guidance and inspiration need look no further than Grief and the Expressive Arts.

In their lively and engaging edition of this sometimes neglected early play, Cox and Rasmussen make a strong claim for it as a remarkable work, revealing a confidence and sureness that very few earlier plays can rival. They show how the young Shakespeare, working closely from his chronicle sources, nevertheless freely shaped his complex material to make it both theatrically effective and poetically innovative. The resulting work creates, in Queen Margaret, one of Shakespeare's strongest female roles and is the source of the popular view of Richard Neville, Earl of Warwick as 'kingmaker'. Focusing on the history of the play both in terms of both performance and criticism, the editors open it to a wide and challenging variety of interpretative and editorial paradigms. Faced with your dissertation or major project and need some help getting started? Thinking about how your final project will affect your overall grades? Then read on. Tapping into her tried and tested formula for learning, bestselling author of The Study Skills Handbook, Stella Cottrell, takes you step-by-step through the key stages of planning, developing, researching and writing up your dissertation or project report. Whether you are an undergraduate or a postgraduate, this guide: - Offers comprehensive coverage of the major components essential to producing strong dissertations and project reports Grief and the Expressive Arts: Practices for Creating Meaning free ebook - Gives unique emphasis to the importance of project management skills - Gets you involved through interactive activities, checklists and engaging student examples Most importantly, it offers the support you need at every stage and will help ensure that the creation of your academic masterpiece is an enjoyable and rewarding experience.

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Path of Energy: Awaken Your Personal Power and Expand Your Consciousness download epub
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Nigella Lawson: How To Eat: The Pleasures and Principles of Good Food (Nigella Collection)

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'Cooking is not just about joining the dots, following one recipe slavishly and then moving on to the next. In cooking, as in writing, you must please yourself to please others.' Hailed by chefs, reviewers, cookery writers and millions of home cooks worldwide as one of the best cookery books ever written, How To Eat is more than just an imaginative collection of over 350 delicious, simple recipes. Combining Nigella's down-to-earth, practical cookery advice with a passion for food and a friendly, chatty style, you will need two copies of this glorious classic: one for the kitchen, one for the bedside table. This is Nigel Slater's all-time favourite cookbook: "If I could only keep one cookbook, this would be it. How To Eat suits the way I cook. It is as if Nigella is sitting on a stool next to me in the kitchen as I'm cooking...With every page you know she loves this stuff, and she wants you to love it too. It's a very, very special book for me. My own copy is falling apart." With gloriously witty food writing, easy recipes, basic cooking tips and a beautiful hardback design, this is a book you will treasure for many years as well as a delicious gift for friends and family. Features: Basics - from easy bread recipes and basic roast chicken to sauce ingredients and seasonal foods; Cooking in advance - slow cooking, marinades and stress-free, easy recipes; One and two - cooking for one and meals for two people, from the practical to the romantic; Fast food - easy recipes and quick meal ideas; Weekend lunch - Saturday and Sunday lunch menus, for entertaining friends and family meals; Dinner - complete dinner menus for any occasion, from an elegant dinner party to a simple supper; Low Fat - healthy recipes and low-fat meals that still burst with flavour; and Feeding babies and small children - weaning recipes, easy family meals and dishes to tempt that fussy eater.

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none: A Game of Thrones Lcg: A Change of Seasons

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The A Time of Ravens cycle has long had a far-reaching impact on A Game of Thrones: The Card Game. Now, the cycles six classic Chapter Packs are being reprinted in the 60-card format that best pleases players, arriving with three copies of each different card. Players once again have the chance to pick up the cycles Ravens, seasonal agendas, Refugees, and the many notable characters that promote a colorful and diverse range of strategies for the Great Houses of Westeros.

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Nancy Elizabeth Wallace: The Kindness Quilt

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Minna and her classmates have been asked by their teacher, Mrs. Bloom to work on a Kindness project. Mrs. Bloom wants her pupils to share an act of kindness with the rest of the class, by producing their own little creation. Join Minna, as she starts writing, drawing and cutting to create a paper quilt depicting acts of kindness. Nancy Elizabeth Wallace, teaches young readers important lessons about being kind to one another through her charming artwork using techniques of origami, recycled material and crayons.

A NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER The new novel from the internationally bestselling author of 'The Joy Luck Club'. In fin de siecle Shanghai, Violet Minturn grows up at Hidden Jade Path, the city's most exclusive courtesan house. But when revolution comes, she is separated from her mother and forced to become a "virgin courtesan." Both Chinese and American, Violet moves between these cultural worlds, becoming a shrewd businesswoman who deals in seduction and illusion. But her successes belie her private turmoil. Violet's need for answers propels her on a quest of discovery: a journey to make sense of her life, to right the wrongs of the past - to find love requited. Spanning fifty years and two continents, 'The Valley American Tabloid download PDF of Amazement' dramatises the collapse of China's imperial dynasty and the secret life of the courtesan house. Unfolding old family secrets, this novel returns readers to the compelling territory of 'The Joy Luck Club'. With her characteristic wisdom, grace and humour, she conjures a story of the inheritance of love, its mysteries and betrayals, and its illusions and truths.

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Michael Alexander: Excel Dashboards and Reports For Dummies

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Make the most of your data using the power of Excel When you think of data, do you think of endless rows and columns in spreadsheets? Excel Dashboards and Reports For Dummies, 3rd Edition shows you how to make the most of your data and puts an end to mind-numbing spreadsheets by exploring new ways to conceptualize and present key information. There's often a gap between handling data and synthesizing it into meaningful reports, and this approachable text bridges this gap with quick and accessible information that answers key questions, like how to meaningfully capture data trends, how to show relationships in data, and when it's better to show variances than actual data values. As a leading spreadsheet application, Microsoft Excel is the go-to data software. This tool allows you to use dashboard reports that leverage gauges, maps, charts, sliders, and other visual elements to present complex data in a manner that's easy to understand. Using Excel dashboards effectively can improve your professional capabilities by leaps and bounds. * Analyze and report on large amounts of data in a meaningful way * Look at data from different perspectives, and better visualize the information you're presenting by quickly slicing data on the fly * Automate redundant reporting and analysis functions, making your data analysis and reporting routine more efficient * Create visualizations, dashboards, and what-if analyses that are as visually appealing as they are substantial Excel Dashboards and Reports For Dummies, 3rd Edition is a fantastic resource if you're looking to spice up your reporting!

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M H Clark: Today, Tomorrow, and Every Day

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Her life is her journey. It is her art. She makes it, day by day, hour by hour, into something she is proud to call her own. You recognize her, and you recognize her life because it is your life, too.

PREPARE YOURSELF FOR SPIRITUAL WARFARE"The Spiritual Warfare Bible" is designed to help you use God's Word to accessthe power of the Holy Spirit against demonic strongholds and activity. Withengaging study materials from Christian leaders and best-selling authors, this Bible is perfect for both individual study and small groups. *"The world is a sphere, there is no East or West." Personal Reflections *"I've never planned any part of my career-- except being an artist. And I was pushed into that corner because I thought being an artist was the only way to have a little freedom." *"Anyone fighting for freedom does not want to totally lose their freedom." *"Expressing oneself is like a drug. I'm so addicted to it." Christopher Hart's clear step-by-step drawings (hundreds of them!) and easy instructions let young people convert familiar animals into manga monsters complete with cool claws, horns, Today, Tomorrow, and Every Day pdf feet, and fur. Turn simple rabbits into atomic bunnies...transform ordinary mice into alien mice...make a plain old dinosaur into the mighty belchosaurus! These colourful, fun monsters appeal to everyone and Hart's engaging skills and laugh-out-loud creations will have kids drawing right away. It's monstrously easy and monstrously fun!

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Geoffrey R Treloar: The Disruption of Evangelicalism: The Age of Torrey, Mott, McPherson and Hammond

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The Disruption of Evangelicalism is the first comprehensive account of the evangelical tradition across the English-speaking world from the end of the nineteenth to the mid-twentieth century. It offers fresh perspectives on conversionism and the life of faith, biblical and theological perspectives, social engagement, and mission. Tracing these trajectories through a period of great turbulence in world history, we see the deepening of an evangelical diversity. And as events unfold, we notice the spectrum of evangelicalism fragments in varied and often competing strands. Dividing the era into two phases—before 1914 and after 1918—draws out the impact of the Great War of 1914–18 as evangelicals renegotiated their identity in the modern world. By accenting his account with the careers of selected key figures, Geoffrey Treloar illustrates the very different responses of evangelicals to the demands of a critical and transitional period. The Disruption of Evangelicalism sets out a case that deserves the attention of both professional and arm-chair historians.

In addition to guidance on grammar points that have challenged writers in the social sciences, the Concise Rules provides suggestions for reducing bias in language; reviews the mechanics of style for punctuation, spelling, capitalisation, abbreviation, italicisation, headings and quotations; examines the preferred use of numbers as well as standards for metrication and statistics; provides guidance on the construction and formatting of tables, figures and appendixes; and offers clear examples and models for citing sources and constructing error-free reference lists. Available in a light-weight, spiral-bound format, the Midnight Mystery free epub Concise Rules will travel easily from home to school to office. It will be an invaluable reference tool for all social science scholars who are serious about communicating clearly and effectively. Key to this edition is an updated and expanded APA Style website, with many additional resources to help readers learn APA style, including free tutorials, on-line courses, frequently asked questions, sample papers, and the APA Style blog.

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